Projections

The recently published 2022 based population projections (Subnational Population Projections: 2022-based – National Records of Scotland (NRS)) show no change in the overall population is expected across Grampian between 2022 and 2047 (Figure x). At local authority level Aberdeen City is projected to have a 3% increase while decreases of 1% and 5%, respectively, are expected in Aberdeenshire and Moray.

While no increase in the total population is projected, big changes are expected in demographics with the over 65 population predicted to grow by 37%, and as much as 45% in Aberdeenshire. A large drop in the under 18 population has been modelled, particularly in Aberdeenshire and Moray, with these areas also seeing decreases of over 10% in the working age population.

Figure x – Projected % Change in Population (2022-2047) for Grampian and broken down by area.

What does the current and projected population demographics mean for Grampians health and social care services going forward?[AR(G1] 

These patterns reveal how demographic pressures and service needs differ across Grampian, with Aberdeen City’s dependence on international migration suggesting its population is younger and more transient. This creates challenges in maintaining continuity of care and ensuring equitable access to services. In contrast, Aberdeenshire and Moray’s reliance on in-migration from elsewhere in Scotland and the UK alongside ongoing natural decline point to a rapidly ageing population, with higher demand for long-term health and social care.