Birth & Death Trends

The number of births and deaths contribute to natural change in the population demographics. Trends in live births and deaths from 2022 to 2023 are shown in Figures 10 and 11.

Trends in live births (crude rate per 1,000 population, Figure 10) over time shows that the trends in live births across Grampian has varied. Moray has generally had the lowest live birth rate and Aberdeen City the highest (with the exception of 2020/21 where rates were more similar). Aberdeenshire live birth rates have been somewhere in the middle of the other areas and are now similar to Moray.

Over time trends in deaths (all ages – based on a 3 year rolling average number and directly age sex standardised rate per 100,000 population, Figure 11) show that Aberdeen City has generally had the highest death rate compared to Aberdeenshire and Moray. However, in recent years there has been a slight increase in the death rate in Moray. Aberdeenshire has the lowest death rate.

Figure 10 – Trends in live births (crude rate per 1,000 population) for Scotland, Grampian, Aberdeen City, Aberdeenshire and Moray. Click on the image to enlarge.

Source: Figure compiled using Population data in the ScotPHO profiles

Figure 11 – Trends in deaths (all ages) for 2002-2004 to 2021-2023 for Aberdeen City, Aberdeenshire, Moray and Grampian (Scotland included as comparison). Click on the image to enlarge.

Source: Figure compiled using Population data in the ScotPHO profiles

Impact of birth and death trends on the Grampian population

Until recently the number of births in Grampian have exceeded deaths each year, but starting in 2019 the number of deaths have been greater than births, and they are now trending in opposite directions. This has resulted in a declining natural population which can lead to shrinking school-age populations and pressure on working-age workforce, increasing dependency ratios. Migration over time will become critical to maintaining local economies and care workforces.

The excess of deaths over births is evident in all three areas but is particularly noticeable in Moray, every year from 2015 onwards where there is a clear divergence in trend (Figure 12).

Figure 12 – Impact of births (live) and deaths over time (1974-2024) in (a) Grampian, (b) Aberdeen City, (c) Aberdeenshire and (d) Moray.  Click on the image to enlarge.

(a) Grampian

(b) Aberdeen City

(c) Aberdeenshire

(d) Moray

The ratio of births to deaths for Grampian, Aberdeen City, Aberdeenshire and Moray are shown below in Figure 13. The black dotted line in this figure indicates the level below which there are more deaths occurring than births. Since about 2016, there has been a steady decline in the births to deaths ratio highlighting that more deaths have occurred than births leading to a decline in Grampian’s population over time. Although a declining trend has been seen in all 3 areas, it is most significant in Moray and was evident at a much earlier time period (since 2009). 

Figure 13 – Trends in births to deaths ratio from 1997-2024. Click on the image to enlarge.