Impact of birth and death trends on the Grampian population

Until recently the number of births in Grampian have exceeded deaths each year, but starting in 2019 the number of deaths have been greater than births, and they are now trending in opposite directions. This has resulted in a declining natural population which can lead to shrinking school-age populations and pressure on working-age workforce, increasing dependency ratios. Migration over time will become critical to maintaining local economies and care workforces.

The excess of deaths over births is evident in all three areas but is particularly noticeable in Moray, every year from 2015 onwards where there is a clear divergence in trend (Figure x).

Figure x – Impact of births (live) and deaths over time (1974-2024) in (a) Grampian, (b) Aberdeen City, (c) Aberdeenshire and (d) Moray

(a) Grampian

(b) Aberdeen City

(c) Aberdeenshire

(d) Moray

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